probability_epidemic {superspreading} | R Documentation |
Calculate the probability a disease will cause an outbreak based on R, k and initial cases
Description
Calculates the probability a branching process will cause an epidemic (i.e. probability will fail to go extinct) based on R, k and initial cases.
Usage
probability_epidemic(
R,
k,
num_init_infect,
ind_control = 0,
pop_control = 0,
...,
offspring_dist
)
Arguments
R |
A |
k |
A |
num_init_infect |
An |
ind_control |
A |
pop_control |
A |
... |
< |
offspring_dist |
An |
Value
A value with the probability of a large epidemic.
References
Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Schreiber, S. J., Kopp, P. E., & Getz, W. M. (2005) Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature, 438(7066), 355-359. doi:10.1038/nature04153
Kucharski, A. J., Russell, T. W., Diamond, C., Liu, Y., Edmunds, J., Funk, S. & Eggo, R. M. (2020) Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 20(5), 553-558. doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30144-4
See Also
Examples
probability_epidemic(R = 1.5, k = 0.1, num_init_infect = 10)